West Ham United at Millwall — Game center Final Championship
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast West Ham United 56%
Draw 22%
Millwall 22%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 91% Hit West Ham United 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 91% Hit Millwall 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Hit Showing 3 of 30 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.33 vs 1.80 (away Points per game 2.01 / runs allowed 1.38)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.80 - 2.33
+9.5%p vs league average
4.13 vs 2.92 goals
-7.3%p
Head to head West Ham United Millwall
Model expected goals
2.33 1.80
Data source: ESPN API
Jarrod Bowen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lyndon Dykes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Konstantinos Mavropanos Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 4.13 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 4/2 Hit
91% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 West Ham United 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.33 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
91% Millwall 1+ goals· 1+ Goals West Ham United 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Millwall 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Millwall clean sheet· Clean Sheet West Ham United clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 West Ham United Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.33 vs 1.80 (away Points per game 2.01 / runs allowed 1.38)
goals 2/3 Miss
56% Millwall Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.80 vs 2.33 (home Points per game 1.67 / runs allowed 1.88) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/3 Miss
22% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
22% Goalscorers24 Jarrod Bowen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lyndon Dykes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jarrod Bowen 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Konstantinos Mavropanos Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lyndon Dykes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Joël Piroe Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Taïryk Arconte Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Mohamadou Kanté Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Konstantinos Mavropanos 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Joël Piroe 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Taïryk Arconte 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Mohamadou Kanté 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Camiel Neghli Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Camiel Neghli 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Caleb Taylor Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Caleb Taylor 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Lyndon Dykes 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jarrod Bowen 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Konstantinos Mavropanos 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Joël Piroe 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Taïryk Arconte 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Mohamadou Kanté 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Caleb Taylor 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Camiel Neghli 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Millwall KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
West Ham United MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 29.0%
Draw 21.0%
Away win 50.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Millwall 17–41%, Draw 10.2–31.8%, West Ham United 36.8–63.2%
West Ham United leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.53 more expected goals). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 3 4 3 2 1 3 7 8 6 3 2 2 3 6 7 6 3 2 3 1 4 4 3 2 4 2 2 2 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 77%
Under 2.5 goals 23%
Both teams score 76%
Millwall clean sheet 10%
West Ham United clean sheet 17% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
