Oakland-Alameda County ColiseumOct 5 (Mon) · 1:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
América39%
Draw29%
Guadalajara32%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.36 vs 1.24 (away Points per game 1.75 / runs allowed 1.21)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Guadalajara 20.6–45.4%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, América 26.1–51.9%
América leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.12 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
10
7
3
1
9
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
3
2
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
54%
Guadalajara clean sheet
26%
América clean sheet
29%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
