Drogheda United at Trabzonspor — Game center
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimateexpected runs 1.92 vs 1.01 (home Points per game 2.12 / runs allowed 0.85) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Model expected goals
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models
Team stats6
total runs4
games3
Soccer deep dive
MODEL ESTIMATES
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Trabzonspor 45–71%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Drogheda United 7.8–28.2%
Trabzonspor leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.91 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Trabzonspor clean sheet
- 36%
- Drogheda United clean sheet
- 15%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
Lineups and availability
Get today's probabilities in your inbox
One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.