MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.40 vs 1.34 (home Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.38) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Hamburg SV 24.2–49.8%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, F.C. København 22.4–47.6%
Attacking output is close (1.40 vs 1.34 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
8
6
2
1
8
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
57%
Hamburg SV clean sheet
26%
F.C. København clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
