FC Arsenal Tula at CSKA Moscow — Game center
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimateexpected runs 1.39 vs 1.32 (home Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Model expected goals
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models
total runs4
Team stats6
games3
Soccer deep dive
Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: CSKA Moscow 25.2–50.8%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, FC Arsenal Tula 22.4–47.6%
Attacking output is close (1.39 vs 1.32 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- CSKA Moscow clean sheet
- 27%
- FC Arsenal Tula clean sheet
- 25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
Lineups and availability
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.