expected runs 2.03 vs 1.99 (away Points per game 1.28 / runs allowed 1.60)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Chelsea 25.2–50.8%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, AFC Bournemouth 27.1–52.9%
Attacking output is close (1.99 vs 2.03 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
3
4
2
1
1
3
8
7
5
2
2
4
7
7
5
3
1
3
2
5
5
3
2
4
1
2
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%
Both teams score
76%
Chelsea clean sheet
13%
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet
14%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
