American Express StadiumSep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Arsenal39%
Draw31%
Brighton & Hove Albion30%
Locked before start
Brighton & Hove Albion1+ goals· 1+ Goals66%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.568%Hit
Arsenal1+ goals· 1+ Goals72%Miss
Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 0.96 vs 1.50 (away Points per game 1.45 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Brighton & Hove Albion leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.54 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
7
4
1
1
12
13
6
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
5
2
4
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
49%
Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet
38%
Arsenal clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
