MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.88 vs 0.83 (away Points per game 1.42 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Sunderland 5.6–24.4%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Arsenal 49.2–74.8%
Arsenal leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.05 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
12
12
7
3
1
1
5
11
10
6
3
1
2
2
4
4
3
1
3
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
49%
Sunderland clean sheet
15%
Arsenal clean sheet
44%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
