Tottenham Hotspur StadiumSep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Aston Villa27%
Draw29%
Tottenham Hotspur44%
Locked before start
Tottenham Hotspur1+ goals· 1+ Goals76%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.572%Hit
Aston Villa1+ goals· 1+ Goals67%Hit
Showing 3 of 15 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.69 vs 1.01 (home Points per game 1.20 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Tottenham Hotspur 39.8–66.2%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Aston Villa 10.2–31.8%
Tottenham Hotspur leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.68 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
6
3
1
1
11
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
53%
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet
36%
Aston Villa clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
