expected runs 2.02 vs 0.56 (away Points per game 1.70 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Aston Villa 0.8–15.2%, Draw 9.4–30.6%, Brentford 60.1–83.9%
Brentford leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.46 more expected goals). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
15
15
10
5
2
1
4
9
9
6
3
1
2
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
38%
Aston Villa clean sheet
13%
Brentford clean sheet
57%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
