Brighton & Hove Albion at Sunderland — Game center Scheduled EPL
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Brighton & Hove Albion 73%
Draw 14%
Sunderland 13%
Behind the probability expected runs 2.97 vs 0.99 (away Points per game 2.25 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
0.99 - 2.97
+35.7%p vs league average
3.96 vs 2.82 goals
-6.8%p
Head to head Brighton & Hove Albion Sunderland
Model expected goals
2.97 0.99
Data source: ESPN API
Pascal Gross Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Charalambos Kostoulas Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Malick Yalcouyé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.97 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
95% Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Sunderland 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Sunderland clean sheet· Clean Sheet Sunderland 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.96 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
90% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Brighton & Hove Albion Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.97 vs 0.99 (away Points per game 2.25 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
73% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
14% Sunderland Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 0.99 vs 2.97 (home Points per game 1.26 / runs allowed 2.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
13% Goalscorers21 Pascal Gross Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Pascal Gross 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Charalambos Kostoulas Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Malick Yalcouyé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jack Hinshelwood Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Charalambos Kostoulas 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Malick Yalcouyé 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jack Hinshelwood 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Brian Brobbey Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Brian Brobbey 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Enzo Le Fée Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Enzo Le Fée 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Nilson Angulo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Nilson Angulo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Wilson Isidor Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Wilson Isidor 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Pascal Gross 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Charalambos Kostoulas 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Malick Yalcouyé 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jack Hinshelwood 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Brian Brobbey 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Sunderland KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Brighton & Hove Albion MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 9.0%
Draw 14.0%
Away win 77.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Sunderland 1.4–16.6%, Draw 4.8–23.2%, Brighton & Hove Albion 65.9–88.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.98 more expected goals). The draw sits at 14%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 6 9 8 6 3 1 2 6 8 8 6 4 2 3 4 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 75%
Under 2.5 goals 25%
Both teams score 60%
Sunderland clean sheet 5%
Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet 37% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
