expected runs 3.00 vs 0.81 (home Points per game 1.65 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Brentford 70.6–91.4%, Draw 4.1–21.9%, Chelsea 0.1–12.3%
Brentford leads mainly on recent attacking output (2.19 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 13%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
1
1
7
6
2
2
10
8
3
3
10
8
3
4
7
6
3
5
4
4
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals
27%
Both teams score
53%
Brentford clean sheet
45%
Chelsea clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
