expected runs 2.31 vs 0.54 (home Points per game 1.46 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Nottingham Forest 65.9–88.1%, Draw 7.1–26.9%, Coventry City 0.1–12.3%
Nottingham Forest leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.76 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
3
1
13
8
2
2
15
8
2
3
12
6
2
4
7
4
1
5
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
38%
Nottingham Forest clean sheet
58%
Coventry City clean sheet
10%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
