expected runs 2.17 vs 0.43 (home Points per game 1.25 / runs allowed 0.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Leeds United 67.1–88.9%, Draw 7.1–26.9%, Crystal Palace 0.1–10.8%
Leeds United leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.74 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
3
1
16
7
1
2
18
7
2
3
13
6
1
4
7
3
5
3
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
32%
Leeds United clean sheet
65%
Crystal Palace clean sheet
11%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
