Tottenham Hotspur StadiumSep 12 (Sat) · 4:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Everton65%
Draw26%
Tottenham Hotspur8%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.61 vs 0.55 (away Points per game 1.52 / runs allowed 0.60)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Tottenham Hotspur 2.7–19.3%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Everton 50.2–75.8%
Everton leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.06 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
13
18
15
8
3
1
6
11
8
4
2
2
2
3
2
1
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
35%
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet
20%
Everton clean sheet
58%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
