expected runs 1.86 vs 1.52 (away Points per game 1.28 / runs allowed 1.60)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Ipswich Town 18.8–43.2%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Fulham 31.9–58.1%
Fulham leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.33 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
6
6
3
2
1
5
10
9
5
2
2
4
7
7
4
2
3
2
4
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
Both teams score
67%
Ipswich Town clean sheet
16%
Fulham clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
