MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.92 vs 0.71 (home Points per game 1.52 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Liverpool 53.5–78.5%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Fulham 3.4–20.6%
Liverpool leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.21 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
4
2
1
13
10
3
2
13
9
3
3
8
6
2
4
4
3
1
5
1
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
44%
Liverpool clean sheet
49%
Fulham clean sheet
15%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
