MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.93 vs 1.04 (away Points per game 1.22 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Chelsea 8.6–29.4%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Hull City 45–71%
Hull City leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.89 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
10
10
6
3
1
1
5
11
10
6
3
1
2
3
5
5
3
2
3
2
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
56%
Chelsea clean sheet
15%
Hull City clean sheet
35%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
