expected runs 1.47 vs 0.82 (away Points per game 1.24 / runs allowed 0.80)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Newcastle United 9.4–30.6%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Hull City 38.8–65.2%
Hull City leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.65 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
11
14
11
5
2
1
7
13
9
4
2
2
3
5
4
2
3
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
44%
Newcastle United clean sheet
23%
Hull City clean sheet
44%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
