MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.96 vs 1.83 (home Points per game 1.13 / runs allowed 2.20) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Crystal Palace 28–54%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Ipswich Town 23.3–48.7%
Attacking output is close (1.96 vs 1.83 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
4
4
2
1
4
9
7
4
2
2
4
8
7
4
2
3
3
5
5
3
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Under 2.5 goals
28%
Both teams score
73%
Crystal Palace clean sheet
16%
Ipswich Town clean sheet
14%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
