expected runs 2.69 vs 0.51 (home Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 0.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Everton 73.1–92.9%, Draw 4.1–21.9%, Ipswich Town 0.1–9.2%
Everton leads mainly on recent attacking output (2.18 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 13%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
2
1
11
6
1
2
15
7
2
3
13
7
2
4
9
5
1
5
5
3
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Both teams score
38%
Everton clean sheet
60%
Ipswich Town clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
