expected runs 0.66 vs 0.64 (away Points per game 1.25 / runs allowed 0.60)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Arsenal 17–41%, Draw 29–55%, Leeds United 17.9–42.1%
Attacking output is close (0.64 vs 0.66 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 42% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
28
17
6
1
1
17
12
4
2
6
4
1
3
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
14%
Under 2.5 goals
86%
Both teams score
24%
Arsenal clean sheet
52%
Leeds United clean sheet
53%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
