expected runs 0.81 vs 1.54 (home Points per game 1.29 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AFC Bournemouth 8.6–29.4%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Liverpool 40.8–67.2%
Liverpool leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.73 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
11
14
11
6
2
1
7
13
9
5
2
2
3
5
4
2
3
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
45%
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet
21%
Liverpool clean sheet
44%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
