Manchester United at Fulham — Game center Final EPL
Sep 20 (Sun) · 3:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Manchester United 43%
Draw 26%
Fulham 31%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 84% Hit Manchester United 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 83% Hit Fulham 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 77% Hit Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.14 vs 1.62 (away Points per game 2.03 / runs allowed 1.60)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.62 - 2.14
+9.4%p vs league average
3.76 vs 2.82 goals
-5.6%p
Head to head Manchester United Fulham
Model expected goals
2.14 1.62
Data source: ESPN API
Matheus Cunha Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bruno Fernandes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.76 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
84% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Manchester United 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.14 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
83% Fulham 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Manchester United 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fulham 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fulham clean sheet· Clean Sheet Manchester United clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Manchester United Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.14 vs 1.62 (away Points per game 2.03 / runs allowed 1.60)
goals 1/2 Miss
43% Fulham Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.62 vs 2.14 (home Points per game 1.29 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/2 Miss
31% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
26% Goalscorers21 Matheus Cunha Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matheus Cunha 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Bruno Fernandes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bruno Fernandes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Bruno Fernandes 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Josh King Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bryan Mbeumo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Josh King 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Benjamin Sesko Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Gonzalo García Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer César Palacios Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Benjamin Sesko 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Gonzalo García 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 César Palacios 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Josh King 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Bryan Mbeumo 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Gonzalo García 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals César Palacios 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Matheus Cunha 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Benjamin Sesko 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Fulham KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 3:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Manchester United Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Fulham 16.1–39.9%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Manchester United 35.8–62.2%
Manchester United leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.52 more expected goals). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 3 5 5 4 2 1 3 9 9 6 3 1 2 3 6 7 5 3 1 3 2 3 4 3 2 4 1 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 72%
Under 2.5 goals 28%
Both teams score 71%
Fulham clean sheet 12%
Manchester United clean sheet 20% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
