MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.12 vs 0.57 (home Points per game 1.50 / runs allowed 0.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Leeds United 61.3–84.7%, Draw 8.6–29.4%, Newcastle United 0.8–15.2%
Leeds United leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.55 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
3
1
1
14
9
2
2
15
9
2
3
11
6
2
4
6
3
1
5
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
39%
Leeds United clean sheet
57%
Newcastle United clean sheet
12%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
