MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.70 vs 0.74 (away Points per game 1.43 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Aston Villa 5.6–24.4%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Nottingham Forest 47.1–72.9%
Nottingham Forest leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.96 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
14
13
7
3
1
6
12
9
5
2
2
2
4
3
2
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
44%
Aston Villa clean sheet
18%
Nottingham Forest clean sheet
48%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
