expected runs 2.69 vs 0.83 (home Points per game 1.71 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Manchester City 65.9–88.1%, Draw 5.6–24.4%, Sunderland 0.8–15.2%
Manchester City leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.86 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 15%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
2
1
8
7
3
2
11
9
4
3
10
8
3
4
6
5
2
5
3
3
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
32%
Both teams score
53%
Manchester City clean sheet
43%
Sunderland clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
