expected runs 2.54 vs 1.16 (home Points per game 2.02 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Manchester United 67%Draw 19%Tottenham Hotspur 14%
Estimated range: Manchester United 54.6–79.4%, Draw 8.6–29.4%, Tottenham Hotspur 4.8–23.2%
Manchester United leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.38 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
2
1
6
8
4
2
2
8
9
5
2
3
7
8
5
2
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
64%
Manchester United clean sheet
31%
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet
8%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
