Queensland Country Bank StadiumSep 25 (Fri) · 10:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Brazil49%
Draw26%
Australia25%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.77 vs 1.28 (away Points per game 2.07 / runs allowed 1.35)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Australia 15.3–38.7%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Brazil 34.8–61.2%
Brazil leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.49 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
8
7
4
2
1
6
11
9
6
2
2
4
7
6
4
2
3
2
3
3
2
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Both teams score
61%
Australia clean sheet
17%
Brazil clean sheet
28%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
