MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.65 vs 1.22 (away Points per game 1.88 / runs allowed 1.35)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Australia 15.3–38.7%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Brazil 33.8–60.2%
Brazil leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.43 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
9
8
4
2
1
6
12
9
5
2
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
58%
Australia clean sheet
19%
Brazil clean sheet
30%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
