expected runs 1.31 vs 0.99 (away Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.35)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Gambia leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.32 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 30% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
11
12
8
4
1
1
9
14
9
4
1
2
5
6
4
2
3
2
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
47%
Bolivia clean sheet
27%
Gambia clean sheet
37%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
