MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.79 vs 0.80 (home Points per game 1.91 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Russia 47.1–72.9%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Iran 5.6–24.4%
Russia leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.99 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
5
2
1
13
11
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
7
6
2
4
3
3
1
5
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
47%
Russia clean sheet
45%
Iran clean sheet
17%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
