Chongqing Longxing Football StadiumSep 24 (Thu) · 11:35 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Maldives29%
Draw27%
China44%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.64 vs 1.31 (home Points per game 1.69 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: China 30.9–57.1%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Maldives 17.9–42.1%
China leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.32 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
6
4
2
1
8
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
3
4
5
3
2
4
1
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
60%
China clean sheet
27%
Maldives clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
