Chongqing Longxing Football StadiumSep 27 (Sun) · 11:35 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
New Zealand24%
Draw26%
China50%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.73 vs 1.20 (home Points per game 1.82 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: China 35.8–62.2%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, New Zealand 14.4–37.6%
China leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.52 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
6
4
1
1
9
12
7
3
2
8
10
6
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
58%
China clean sheet
30%
New Zealand clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
