Chongqing Longxing Football StadiumOct 2 (Fri) · 11:35 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Palestine20%
Draw27%
China53%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.68 vs 1.00 (home Points per game 1.75 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: China 38.8–65.2%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Palestine 11.1–32.9%
China leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.67 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
6
3
1
1
11
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
52%
China clean sheet
37%
Palestine clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
