Sports Illustrated StadiumSep 30 (Wed) · 1:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Peru26%
Draw29%
Mexico45%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.47 vs 1.12 (home Points per game 1.45 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Mexico 30.9–57.1%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Peru 16.1–39.9%
Mexico leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.35 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
8
5
2
1
10
13
7
3
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
3
4
1
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
53%
Mexico clean sheet
33%
Peru clean sheet
23%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
