King Abdullah II StadiumSep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Syria40%
Draw31%
Jordan29%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.31 vs 1.11 (away Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.35)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Jordan 17.9–42.1%, Draw 17–41%, Syria 27.1–52.9%
Syria leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.21 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
11
7
3
1
1
9
14
8
4
1
2
5
7
5
2
3
2
3
2
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
50%
Jordan clean sheet
27%
Syria clean sheet
33%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
