Pakhtakor Markaziy StadiumOct 1 (Thu) · 2:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Syria35%
Draw29%
Uzbekistan36%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.30 vs 1.31 (home Points per game 1.20 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Attacking output is close (1.30 vs 1.31 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
9
6
3
1
9
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
54%
Uzbekistan clean sheet
27%
Syria clean sheet
27%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
