Uganda at Congo DR — Game center
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimateexpected runs 1.31 vs 1.10 (away Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.35)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Model expected goals
Data source: ESPN API
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Team stats6
total runs4
games3
Goalscorers2
Soccer deep dive
MODEL ESTIMATES
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Congo DR 17.9–42.1%, Draw 17–41%, Uganda 28–54%
Uganda leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.22 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Congo DR clean sheet
- 27%
- Uganda clean sheet
- 33%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
Lineups and availability
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.