Seoul World Cup StadiumSep 28 (Mon) · 11:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Uruguay23%
Draw27%
South Korea50%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.66 vs 1.16 (home Points per game 1.72 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: South Korea 34.8–61.2%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Uruguay 13.6–36.4%
South Korea leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.50 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
6
4
1
1
9
12
7
2
2
8
10
6
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
56%
South Korea clean sheet
31%
Uruguay clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
