Ulsan Munsu Football StadiumOct 2 (Fri) · 11:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Venezuela28%
Draw26%
South Korea46%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.74 vs 1.34 (home Points per game 1.84 / runs allowed 1.35) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: South Korea 32.8–59.2%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Venezuela 17–41%
South Korea leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.40 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
6
4
2
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
3
4
5
4
2
4
2
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams score
62%
South Korea clean sheet
26%
Venezuela clean sheet
17%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
