PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBankSep 19 (Sat) · 9:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Cerezo Osaka36%
Draw28%
V-Varen Nagasaki36%
Locked before start
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.589%Hit
V-Varen Nagasaki1+ goals· 1+ Goals87%Hit
Cerezo Osaka1+ goals· 1+ Goals87%Hit
Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.37 vs 1.39 (home Points per game 1.23 / runs allowed 1.88) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Attacking output is close (1.37 vs 1.39 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
8
6
3
1
8
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
57%
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet
25%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
