Fagiano Okayama at Avispa Fukuoka — Game center Scheduled J League
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 6:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Fagiano Okayama 41%
Draw 26%
Avispa Fukuoka 33%
Behind the probability expected runs 1.47 vs 1.25 (away Points per game 1.57 / runs allowed 1.25)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.25 - 1.47
+3.9%p vs league average
2.72 vs 2.99 goals
+1.6%p
Head to head Fagiano Okayama Avispa Fukuoka
Model expected goals
1.47 1.25
Data source: ESPN API
Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shu Morooka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuma Tsujioka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.47 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
89% Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet· Clean Sheet Fagiano Okayama clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.72 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
88% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Fagiano Okayama Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.47 vs 1.25 (away Points per game 1.57 / runs allowed 1.25)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
41% Avispa Fukuoka Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.25 vs 1.47 (home Points per game 1.36 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
33% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
26% Goalscorers18 Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shu Morooka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kota Kawano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shu Morooka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yuma Tsujioka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Werik Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kazuki Fujimoto Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hiroshi Omori Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hiroshi Omori 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yugo Tatsuta Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yugo Tatsuta 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Na Sang-Ho Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Na Sang-Ho 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shu Morooka 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kota Kawano 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yuma Tsujioka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Werik 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kazuki Fujimoto 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Avispa Fukuoka KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 6:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Fagiano Okayama MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 31.0%
Draw 28.0%
Away win 41.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Avispa Fukuoka 18.8–43.2%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Fagiano Okayama 28–54%
Fagiano Okayama leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.22 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 8 9 7 3 1 1 8 13 9 4 2 2 5 8 6 3 1 3 2 3 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Under 2.5 goals 49%
Both teams score 56%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet 23%
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet 29% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
