Fagiano Okayama at Urawa Red Diamonds — Game center Final J League
Sep 13 (Sun) · 9:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Fagiano Okayama 53%
Draw 22%
Urawa Red Diamonds 25%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability expected runs 2.35 vs 1.72 (away Points per game 1.66 / runs allowed 1.25)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.72 - 2.35
+11.4%p vs league average
4.07 vs 2.96 goals
-6.6%p
Head to head Fagiano Okayama Urawa Red Diamonds
Model expected goals
2.35 1.72
Data source: ESPN API
Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Harumi Minamino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matheus Sávio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 4.07 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +9pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 3/2 Hit
99%+ Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.35 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +10pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 2/1 Hit
99%+ Urawa Red Diamonds 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Urawa Red Diamonds 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Urawa Red Diamonds clean sheet· Clean Sheet Fagiano Okayama clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Fagiano Okayama Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.35 vs 1.72 (away Points per game 1.66 / runs allowed 1.25)
goals 2/2 Hit
53% Urawa Red Diamonds Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.72 vs 2.35 (home Points per game 1.85 / runs allowed 2.25) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/3 Miss
25% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
22% Goalscorers22 Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kota Kawano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Harumi Minamino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matheus Sávio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Harumi Minamino 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Matheus Sávio 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hiroshi Omori Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yugo Tatsuta Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Na Sang-Ho Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hiroshi Omori 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yugo Tatsuta 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Na Sang-Ho 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kota Kawano 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Hiiro Komori Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Takuro Kaneko Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Harumi Minamino 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Matheus Sávio 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Hiiro Komori 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Takuro Kaneko 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hiroshi Omori 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yugo Tatsuta 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Na Sang-Ho 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Urawa Red Diamonds KICKOFF Sep 13 (Sun) · 9:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Fagiano Okayama MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 27.0%
Draw 21.0%
Away win 52.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Urawa Red Diamonds 15.3–38.7%, Draw 10.2–31.8%, Fagiano Okayama 38.8–65.2%
Fagiano Okayama leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.63 more expected goals). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 4 5 4 2 1 3 8 8 6 4 2 2 2 6 7 5 3 2 3 1 3 4 3 2 4 1 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 76%
Under 2.5 goals 24%
Both teams score 75%
Urawa Red Diamonds clean sheet 10%
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet 18% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
