expected runs 2.38 vs 1.66 (home Points per game 1.83 / runs allowed 2.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Kashima Antlers leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.72 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
3
2
1
1
4
8
6
3
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
3
4
7
5
3
1
4
2
4
3
2
5
1
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%
Both teams score
74%
Kashima Antlers clean sheet
19%
Gamba Osaka clean sheet
9%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
