JEF United Ichihara-Chiba at Shimizu S-Pulse — Game center Final J League
Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast JEF United Ichihara-Chiba 9%
Draw 26%
Shimizu S-Pulse 65%
Locked before start
Shimizu S-Pulse 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 94% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 80% Hit Shimizu S-Pulse Home Win· Home Win 65% Hit Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.79 vs 0.63 (home Points per game 1.07 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.79 - 0.63
+20.9%p vs league average
2.42 vs 2.96 goals
-3.3%p
Head to head JEF United Ichihara-Chiba Shimizu S-Pulse
Model expected goals
0.63 1.79
Data source: ESPN API
Oh Se-Hun Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kosuke Kinoshita Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yudai Shimamoto Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Shimizu S-Pulse 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.79 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 2/1 Hit
94% JEF United Ichihara-Chiba clean sheet· Clean Sheet Shimizu S-Pulse 2+ goals· 2+ Goals JEF United Ichihara-Chiba 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet· Clean Sheet JEF United Ichihara-Chiba 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.42 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 3/2 Hit
80% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Shimizu S-Pulse Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.79 vs 0.63 (home Points per game 1.07 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/2 Hit
65% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
26% JEF United Ichihara-Chiba Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 0.63 vs 1.79 (away Points per game 1.00 / runs allowed 2.25)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/3 Miss
9% Goalscorers20 Oh Se-Hun Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kosuke Kinoshita Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yudai Shimamoto Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Koya Kitagawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Oh Se-Hun 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kosuke Kinoshita 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yudai Shimamoto 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Koya Kitagawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kazuki Tanaka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kazuki Tanaka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Oh Se-Hun 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kosuke Kinoshita 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yudai Shimamoto 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Koya Kitagawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Indio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Indio 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Takumi Tsukui Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Takumi Tsukui 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ken Yamura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ken Yamura 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Shimizu S-Pulse KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 65.0%
Draw 24.0%
Away win 11.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Shimizu S-Pulse 52.4–77.6%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, JEF United Ichihara-Chiba 2.7–19.3%
Shimizu S-Pulse leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.16 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 10 5 2 1 15 11 3 2 14 9 3 3 8 5 2 4 4 2 5 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 43%
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams score 40%
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet 53%
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba clean sheet 17% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
