Uvance Todoroki Stadium by FujitsuSep 19 (Sat) · 9:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Kashima Antlers16%
Draw19%
Kawasaki Frontale65%
Locked before start
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.599%+Hit
Kawasaki Frontale1+ goals· 1+ Goals99%+Hit
BothTotal 3+ goals· O 2.589%Hit
Showing 3 of 28 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 3.00 vs 1.79 (home Points per game 2.02 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Kawasaki Frontale leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.21 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
1
1
1
2
5
4
2
2
4
7
6
3
2
3
4
7
6
4
2
4
3
5
5
3
1
5
2
3
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
85%
Under 2.5 goals
15%
Both teams score
80%
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet
17%
Kashima Antlers clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
