Kashiwa Reysol at Machida Zelvia — Game center Final J League
Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kashiwa Reysol 10%
Draw 22%
Machida Zelvia 68%
Locked before start
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 99% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 91% Hit Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 66% Hit Showing 3 of 29 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.03 vs 1.42 (home Points per game 1.82 / runs allowed 1.25) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.03 - 1.42
+11.0%p vs league average
3.45 vs 2.96 goals
+2.9%p
Head to head Kashiwa Reysol Machida Zelvia
Model expected goals
1.42 2.03
Data source: ESPN API
Koki Ogawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yusuke Segawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuki Soma Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Machida Zelvia 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.03 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 2/1 Hit
99% Machida Zelvia 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet· Clean Sheet Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Machida Zelvia clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 3.45 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 6/2 Hit
91% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Machida Zelvia Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.03 vs 1.42 (home Points per game 1.82 / runs allowed 1.25) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/5 Miss
68% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
22% Kashiwa Reysol Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 1.42 vs 2.03 (away Points per game 1.80 / runs allowed 1.50)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 4/3 Hit
10% Goalscorers20 Koki Ogawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Koki Ogawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yusuke Segawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuki Soma Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hotaka Nakamura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tete Yengi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yusuke Segawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yuki Soma 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hotaka Nakamura 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tete Yengi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Koki Ogawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yoshio Koizumi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yoshio Koizumi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tojiro Kubo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tojiro Kubo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yusuke Segawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yuki Soma 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yoshio Koizumi 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Keita Endo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Keita Endo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Machida Zelvia KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Kashiwa Reysol MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 51.0%
Draw 23.0%
Away win 26.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Machida Zelvia 37.8–64.2%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Kashiwa Reysol 14.4–37.6%
Machida Zelvia leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.61 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 4 3 1 1 6 10 6 3 1 2 7 9 7 3 1 3 4 6 5 2 4 2 3 2 1 5 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 66%
Under 2.5 goals 34%
Both teams score 67%
Machida Zelvia clean sheet 24%
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet 13% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
