Kyoto Sanga at Fagiano Okayama — Game center Final J League
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kyoto Sanga 9%
Draw 18%
Fagiano Okayama 73%
Locked before start
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 99%+ Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 97% Hit Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 70% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.15 vs 1.06 (home Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 1.25) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.15 - 1.06
+19.6%p vs league average
3.21 vs 2.96 goals
+1.5%p
Head to head Kyoto Sanga Fagiano Okayama
Model expected goals
1.06 2.15
Data source: ESPN API
Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Papagaio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hiroshi Omori Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.15 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +11pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 1/1 Hit
99%+ Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Kyoto Sanga clean sheet· Clean Sheet Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fagiano Okayama clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 3.21 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 3/2 Hit
97% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Fagiano Okayama Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.15 vs 1.06 (home Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 1.25) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/3 Miss
73% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
18% Kyoto Sanga Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 1.06 vs 2.15 (away Points per game 1.35 / runs allowed 1.88)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/2 Hit
9% Goalscorers18 Kota Kawano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kota Kawano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Papagaio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Papagaio 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hiroshi Omori Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yugo Tatsuta Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hiroshi Omori 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yugo Tatsuta 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Na Sang-Ho Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Na Sang-Ho 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ryuma Nakano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ryuma Nakano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kota Kawano 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Papagaio 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals João Pedro Mendes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Haruki Arai Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer João Pedro Mendes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Haruki Arai 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Fagiano Okayama KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Kyoto Sanga Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Fagiano Okayama 49.2–74.8%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Kyoto Sanga 7.1–26.9%
Fagiano Okayama leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.09 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 5 4 2 1 8 10 5 2 2 9 10 5 2 3 7 7 4 1 4 3 4 2 5 1 2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 62%
Under 2.5 goals 38%
Both teams score 59%
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet 35%
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet 12% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
