Machida Zelvia at Kyoto Sanga — Game center Scheduled J League
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 10:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Machida Zelvia 53%
Draw 22%
Kyoto Sanga 25%
Behind the probability expected runs 2.17 vs 1.26 (away Points per game 1.86 / runs allowed 1.25)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.26 - 2.17
+16.2%p vs league average
3.43 vs 2.99 goals
-2.7%p
Head to head Machida Zelvia Kyoto Sanga
Model expected goals
2.17 1.26
Data source: ESPN API
Papagaio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuki Soma Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Koki Ogawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Machida Zelvia 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.17 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +10pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
99% Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Machida Zelvia 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kyoto Sanga clean sheet· Clean Sheet Machida Zelvia clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 3.43 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
98% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Machida Zelvia Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.17 vs 1.26 (away Points per game 1.86 / runs allowed 1.25)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
53% Kyoto Sanga Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.26 vs 2.17 (home Points per game 1.37 / runs allowed 1.88) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
25% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
22% Goalscorers21 Papagaio Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Papagaio 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yuki Soma Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Koki Ogawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuki Soma 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Koki Ogawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hotaka Nakamura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tete Yengi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ryuma Nakano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hotaka Nakamura 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tete Yengi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ryuma Nakano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Papagaio 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yuki Soma 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Koki Ogawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals João Pedro Mendes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer João Pedro Mendes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Haruki Arai Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Haruki Arai 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hotaka Nakamura 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Tete Yengi 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Kyoto Sanga KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 10:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Machida Zelvia MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 21.0%
Draw 22.0%
Away win 57.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Kyoto Sanga 10.2–31.8%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Machida Zelvia 43.9–70.1%
Machida Zelvia leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.90 more expected goals). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 7 8 5 3 1 1 4 10 10 7 4 2 2 2 5 6 4 2 1 3 2 3 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 66%
Under 2.5 goals 34%
Both teams score 64%
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet 11%
Machida Zelvia clean sheet 28% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
